Tracking Mortality in the Wake of COVID-19
Over the past year, she and her research team have analyzed daily hospital data streaming in from across the country. Now they can accurately forecast the number of Americans likely to die from COVID-19 over the next week by tracking and comparing key data from U.S. hospitals.
“That kind of knowledge, that kind of weight, can be hard to carry,” says Karaca-Mandic, the C. Arthur Williams Jr. Professor in Healthcare Risk Management at the University of Minnesota’s Carlson School of Management.
Tracking Mortality in the Wake of COVID-19
Over the past year, she and her research team have analyzed daily hospital data streaming in from across the country. Now they can accurately forecast the number of Americans likely to die from COVID-19 over the next week by tracking and comparing key data from U.S. hospitals.
“That kind of knowledge, that kind of weight, can be hard to carry,” says Karaca-Mandic, the C. Arthur Williams Jr. Professor in Healthcare Risk Management at the University of Minnesota’s Carlson School of Management.
More: The project that tracks daily hospitalization data was recently recognized with several awards bit.ly/COVIDTRACKINGAWARDS
From hospital updates, Karaca-Mandic and her colleagues gain “snapshots” indicating how much strain hospitals and their staffs are enduring. The researchers identify COVID-19 hospital impacts in each state and post them on a single online site. The project also created a first-of-its-kind interactive dashboard to visualize county-level hospital capacities for the entire country based on weekly data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
Government agencies, news media, and citizens can use this information to identify which health care facilities, communities, and regions are COVID-19 hot zones. Public health agencies can use it to forecast changes in disease severity.
The percentage of total intensive-care beds filled in each state is a crucial indicator of pressure on hospitals, Karaca-Mandic says. “I was shocked to observe from the data that during the first few weeks of January 2021, the number of people who lived in areas with ICU beds 90% or more filled reached to more than 89 million,” she says.
In one study, the research team identified considerable disparities in the prevalence of hospitalizations across racial and ethnic groups. In another study, they estimated that the association of hospitalization rate with mortality was almost double the early estimates from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
“We can track these data points and conduct statistical analyses to predict mortality rates in the next week in those states,” Karaca-Mandic says. “That is the human aspect to our work. Our goal is to provide information that can help prevent the overburdening of hospital systems. We want to avoid running out of beds and critical staff so we can continue responding to the pandemic.”
More: The project that tracks daily hospitalization data was recently recognized with several awards bit.ly/COVIDTRACKINGAWARDS